Heavily bearish on US long-term Treasuries
US 10 yr and 30 yr Treasury yields were driven down severely by panicky equity investors despite the downgrade. People still believe the conventional wisdom that when equities go down, go for bonds. But with disappointing economic data, the credit market will only keep deteriorating and it will get harder and harder to borrow money for long term. The Fed’s promise on interest rate and potential QE3 can do nothing but make US bonds worth less
But as long as panic in equity market exists, the yield in treasuries will decline, ppl who hold treasuries will gain.
I am with ya. I would begin a pyramid into the short-side today
What does this have to do with automated trading strategies?
I agree with you in terms of short term. In mid and long run, I believe the credit situation will deteriorate. Unconfirmed source says there’s already institutional investors bidding for US 10 yr at 4% – 5%. True or not, it makes sense to me.
I would be great to short the market yesterday but definitely not today. 🙂 The market probably will be very volatile for a while.
Thanks for replying. I agree it is not necessarily related to auto-trading. But I guess sharing ideas about the financial world should not be a bad thing here.
It might be helpful to understand human traits in Auto-trading strats- No? a great time to start a pyramid..well too late , already started it. …aren’t markets great!
I’m sorry I didn’t get it. what do you mean by pyramid? thanks
—-I agree with you in terms of long run. But how are they bidding 10 year T at 4% to 5% when the yield is around 2.27% right now. Thanks
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