Man, forex could be a waste of time. I look at the usual fast movers that involve ZAR (South Africa) or TRY (Turkish Lira), the RSI spikes but you will see the various timeframe which quickly move against you. Also, the rate of change is very small as in < 0.5%. Is it worth the risk with these unpredictable or volatile behavior? For instance, if you want to get an up move of 1.5 (vs 0.5), you would need to add 3x leverage. With this in mind, it shows that the risk is very very high with low probability. As compared to crypto with gets you easily 1% up moves with no leverage, it makes more sense to get better performance with much lower risk. Even compared to commission fee of retail forex brokers, crypto currency exchanges are so marginal that it makes it more worth it to focus on crypto. I may do this soon as forex is becoming a lost cause with all the reasons I am stating here.
Remember I am using Binance as the crypto exchange and Oanda with forex.
As i have measured this ‘risk’ for thresholds and daily target moves, it is critical to minimize your loss and protect daily profit. You can always do this with market data. You do not want to over trade as I call it. I have shown many examples of achieving a profit level but find you can lose within a few minutes. So why do that? You can now figure why pro readers or the gurus finish their trading within a hour. Now you know why.
In this video, you will find how I am able to quantify the risk. I set different trading ‘modes’ based on the risk results I see. It helps to meet the trading goals I mention above. Some people have difficulties to figure this out. Uh…are they pro traders? Probably not. Let’s put it this way I have learned how many 7-8 digit traders who lead desks do it. This is it! Also, it is very effective and simple. Plus you get more time off if you wanted.
As for me, I am not going to argue with folks who do not generate logs nor analyze them to understand the nuances of the asset class they want to trade. Nor do they focus on trading execution on this same market data. All they do is base it on hunch or do some back test in a severe negative period like 2008/2009. Seriously, they will be surprised when they see how their strategy/algo does against current market data. If you want a conversation, show me a current set of logs of your market data with real trades. Until then, you most likely will wasting all involved with their time.
RenTech HFT Hedge Fund Sees ‘Significant’ Risk of Correction
Here is some quotes on this forecast:
“However, with higher rates and more volatility a distinct possibility, there is a significant risk that asset prices will correct,” he said.
“While the fear of missing out may not be a concern for equity investors, increasing euphoria mixed with a bit of complacency certainly is,” he said. “Historically low levels of volatility may well have given investors a false sense of security in the nearly two years since the last market correction.”
“Who is going to buy the paper the Federal Reserve accumulated during the years of quantitative easing? If the Chinese reassess their appetite for U.S. debt, rates will have to move up to finance the projected $700 billion U.S. deficit this year,” he said.
“While we cannot know when that will happen with the current markets, we are doing our best to prepare for what may be turbulence ahead,” he wrote.