Tag Archives: Ratio

What drives the FX markets for up to 75 % win ratio

Big announcements:

  1. See this video to showcase how someone seems to confirm a 70% + win rate with their fundamental trading view. My vision is pretty close to this as you watch in this video.
  2. Sunday will be the last day for getting this access Interactive Brokers API workshop with my Quant Elite membership. The price doubles after that where I also unbundle the two come Monday for all those interested in the workshop!

What drives the FX markets for 70 %+ win ratio

Here are the notes from this session

What drive FX markets?

Great hour discussion with someone who has the same vision for strategy implementation

All I can say is wow when you watch this video

Note that I tried running this on Facebook Live it is poor delivery method. As a result,  I will be doing all my interactions with GotoMeeting instead but video archives will be made available on Facebook, Youtube, and my blog.

Remember about Sunday’s deadline as mentioned above and below.

Interactive Brokers API Workshop Bootcamp available now

As promised, it is available for all my QUANT ELITE members.

Note the 3 live sessions here

IMPORTANT NOTE: I will keep this course bundled together with my Quant Elite membership until Sunday! That means you will be able buy both for the price of the Quant Elite.

After this Sunday Nov 20, I will be doubling the price of this IB API workshop which will be sold as a standalone product with no connection to my Quant Elite. What does this mean? If you want a deal as in 2 for 1, jump on this deal I mentioned above before this Sunday ends! After Sunday, access to my Interactive Brokers workshop goes up to $197.

 

Also, the weekend for Nov 26 is the US Thanksgiving. I just wished they followed the Canadian schedule to make my life easier but NOOO. As a result, I will be holding a third session for Q&A only on SAT Dec 3 at 10 am EDT.

Detail of my Interactive Brokers API workshop boot camp

Everything is detailed in this video for my members and anyone who want to consider this.

Here is the live event schedule:

First live session:

Tuesday Nov 22 at 3 AM EDT

Second live session:

Saturday Nov 26 at 10 AM EDT

These will be only time I will be doing these.

Pricing schedule:

Up until Sunday Nov 20 $97 with complete monthly access to Quant Elite

$197 as stand alone

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What drives the FX markets for 70 %+ win ratio

What drives the FX markets for 70 %+ win ratio

Here are the notes from this session

What drive FX markets?

Great hour discussion with someone who has the same vision for strategy implementation

Join my FREE newsletter to learn about other great webinar events like this

Trading between  countries

Internal economic activities -> retail sales

Central banks -> interest rates, inflation

 

Volatility with leverage

 

macroeconomic ne

 

you can look at the options to see the probability

currency options yes

 

regression 95% confidence!

 

and Loggistic regressions

On t distributions?

 

 

I jsut look at the data and see if it preditcts… the next move

 

end of the week data

 

well, black shcoles and ito integration

 

order flow no no, I mean, in interactive Brokers… I mean the time & Sales

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/data-feeds/11548-historical-time-sales-tick-data.html

 

 

Charlie, in R, for your regression, is it one or many variables?

 

Yes

 

For normalized daily change, or on the week you said?

 

Weekly

I like it, many news are weekly basis

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/data-feeds/11548-historical-time-sales-tick-data.html

 

https://www.eex.com/en/trading/market-making

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Anyone using Kelly Criterion to measure winning losing trading ratio for next for next amount?

Anyone using Kelly Criterion to measure winning losing trading ratio for next for next amount?

The title says it all as part of your risk management. I am looking for opinions on this technique called Kelly Criterion so let me know

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Quant analytics: Run test and variance ratio test

Quant analytics: Run test and variance ratio test

I have applied two tests for randomness to a few stocks – run test and variance ratio test – applying either to the close, the high or the low series of the stocks.

Just to give some details about the procedure, both the functions apply to univariate time series, the runstest function expects as input the returns (or the log returns) of the series, while the vratiotest function uses the prices. The vratiotest function provides also the option to test against either an i.i.d. random walk or a heteroscedastic random walk. I have chosen the latter option (its null hypothesis is stricter).

Well, both the tests cannot reject the null hypothesis (the series is a random walk) when applied to the close series, but they always reject the null when applied to the high or the low series of the same stocks, and with very low p-values too.

Now, I’m sure there is a very simple reason for this, that, having no experience in the field, I haven’t already seen by myself. Could you please explain me why the high and low series seem ‘less random’ than the close, and if ‘this property’ can be ‘exploited’ in some way?
Thank you.
—–,

This is really interesting observation and first of all I have to notice that no one can fully explain this and experience is not a solution here, as any liquid market has near-to-random prices just because overall complexity of forces influencing each quote.
Regarding your question – my guess is that high/low sequence holds significantly more objective numbers as this is aggregation of day data and there are option/round number/… levels that require some effort to break and the statement that some price level is (not) breached – the information that is actually contained in high/low data – is basically a signal of overall high significance.
On the other hand closes are just a discretization of this near-random price sequence. A term ‘just’ here is a little bit tricky because of consequences of night/holiday position reductions, but as this have somewhat limited influence, the overall randomness cannot be eliminated by this effect only (and I can’t name anything else that draw closes from mere discretization).

I was thinking about something similar, and I was searching for some sort of confirmation.

In the mean time, I have applied also the Ljung-Box-Pierce Q test, searching for departure from randomness based on the null hypothesis of no serial correlation in the returns. This test is usually applied to the residuals after a model is fitted to data, searching for lack of fit (incomplete fit). Applying it to the returns I assumed, as the null hypothesis, that no model could ever be fitted to the data. As before, I have applied to the daily close, high and low series, and also tested with different number of lags [5 10 15 20].

The null was rejected with very low p-values for the high and low series, and it was rejected also for the close series, at alfa = .05, for 7 stocks out of the 10 I have tested.

First of all, I would like to know whether this procedure for randomness test can be considered correct or not. Secondly, do these tests confirm that prices are a quasi-random walk, but not completely random, thus rejecting the EMH?

I have not done research specifically on this subject, but I have a conjecture. Highs and lows are often triggered by stops and limits which are often set at round numbers, say even dollars or rounded dollars (5s, 10s). This will induce some type of serial correlation into the data series. I am actually a little surprised that you did not see the rejection of iid on the close series, as the bid-ask bounce is a well-known effect. I suppose that is an older effect pre-decimaliation when the pricing was more discrete. I would love to hear others’ thoughts on this conjecture.

I actually saw the rejection of the i.i.d. on all the close series. But that wasn’t a surprise, because I was already expecting the presence of heteroscedasticity. That’s why I have tried the variance ratio test for the hypothesis of a heteroscedastic random walk rather than an i.i.d. (just choosing a different option in the function).
—–

The first research I saw on your subject dates from the 1960’s. However, even Bachelier in 1900 expressed in his equations the quasi-randomness of stock prices.

You are starting with the wrong premise and that is that stock price distributions are Gaussian in nature but they are not. So applying runs tests or Ljung-Box test will tend to give wrong answers. Stock price distributions are Paretian in nature with fat tails (outliers) that can be of 6-sigma and often a lot more. This will slap any test based on the assumption of Gaussian distribution out of whack.

In your tests, you also assume that the price series are without data errors, glitches or anomalies. This too is too relaxed. Most data errors, and believe me there are a lot, occur most often on the high and low due to glitches, delayed or out of sequence quotes. The open and close are less venerable to these errors simply because they have a lot less time to happen and therefore a much smaller window of opportunity to appear in data series.

In my opinion, there is no benefit you can extract from your observations on the differences you found in your data series, just as the numerous other researchers of another age (60’s to present) have also found.

Sorry to be so direct. I hope you continue your research, I think we all go through that phase in our way to where we want to go.
=—–
I understand your point regarding the inconsistency of the Ljung-Box test when applied to fat-tailed distributions, but I still need some clarification regarding the runs test. I thought the runs test would have been immune to excess kurtosis, since it takes into account only the sign of the returns and not their module.

Another clarification, when you speak of glitches and anomalies, you are not referring to spikes, actual sudden increases or crashes of the price, right? but you are saying that the data are simply wrongly reported (the price never moved at the values reported for the high and low of that day, not even for a second).
—–
Let’s say you have a million machines connected to their respective brokers around the world all being fed the aggregate of all trades on the various exchanges were trades are executed electronically in a fraction of a second or entered manually in the system to then be re-disseminated to all connected clients. So what you see on your monitor are all the quotes that arrive in the sequence (hopefully) that they were entered in the system. The queue is not totally sequential, a lot of the trades are out of order, reported late or with data errors not to mention canceled and busted orders or zero volume trades. I think the market maker and specialist on the floor has some 15 seconds to report a trade, otherwise he/she has to fill a form and then enter the trade in the system. This is often used to hide a big prearranged trade in order not to show one’s hand. All this is not addressing the state of your internet connection, the glitches in routing, the possible delayed transmissions put on high bandwidth users like traders.

There are many sources to have what you see as “correct” data to be just an approximation of what the market is really doing.

Look at the data from last year May 6th Flash Crash. Trades that could not probabilistically happen in 100 millions years were done by the thousands. The data was so erratic that you could see big names stocks exchange hand at a penny. Even exchange traded funds traded at $0.00.

To have the cleanest data possible I would recommend only using the open and close just because they have a much smaller window in time for something to go wrong

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How Put/Call Ratio and VIX indicators work

How Put/Call Ratio and VIX indicators work

The indicators (Put/Call Ratio and VIX) discussed in http://www.jrbolsa.com/100925smvrpcs.pdf, http://jrbolsa.com/100308rpc.pdf, http://www.jrbolsa.com/100926IbexRpcVix.gif are available in our site (www.jrbolsa.com). Best regards. jr
Los indicadores (Ratio Put/Call y VIX) comentados en http://www.jrbolsa.com/100925smvrpcs.pdf, http://jrbolsa.com/100308rpc.pdf, http://www.jrbolsa.com/100926IbexRpcVix.gif ya están a disposición en la página (www.jrbolsa.com). Un saludo. jr

HOW DO YOU START A PROFITABLE TRADING BUSINESS? Read more NOW >>>

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!