My  Q&A on What will be the most profitable trading ideas for 2014

I follow up these questions up with my –>

This came in from a newsletter member:

I am struggling with something and maybe you know the answer.

 

I am a developing discretionary trader and I know enough to know the markets are nowhere near Gaussian.

As a result, correlations, volatility, risk management, etc based on this normality assumption is nonsense.

In fact it is not me saying it but even academics who tackle real problems.

 

When learning for quant skills I find either knowledge (books) based on the normality assumption which I can follow (the material book I mean), or

sophisticated stuff by quants like Sinclair, Nasim Taleb and a … see “Advanced Trading Rules”, for example, which I cannot follow because I need my foundation.

By foundation I mean stuff like GARCH, ARIMA and the like.

 

–> I have studied some of this but I intend to do a wide set of experiments with various components I have built and showcased in my workshop in late 2013

 

But, when trying to learn about those I end up in the books with normality assumption… !!

BTW, in regards to “Advanced Trading Rules” in particular I can point to you some cool stuff they are doing (by I can barely follow).

 

–> YOU cannot follow due to it is complex?

 

Tests like Dickie Fuller and things like that seem too basic and with unrealistic assumptions…

 

–> Simple seems to works best as you can understand it easier

 

Also, any of those model built from historical distributions that are simply fit to data cannot work.

 

–> In your mind these don’t work because?

 

Curve fitting is fool’s gold in trading….

 

–? WIll do a book review on this very very soon

 

Are you mastering this?

Any thoughts?

 

–>I plan to focus on those experimental models which shows potential profit but each one crossed with certain types of assets works. This is my goal for the first number of months this year

 

In terms of making progress towards strategies this is what I need to crack.

Are you interested to discuss this directly?

 

–> Are you able tocome out to a local Meetup

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