Tag Archives: Update

Karen Supertrader Options specific note update

Karen Supertrader Options  specific note update

This is originally from

https://quantlabs.net/blog/2015/04/specific-notes-on-karen-super-trader-options-strategy/

Note that I am attempting to automate this strategy using my workflow as described below with Matlab. This also looks  very legit as the SEC raw filings are below as well.

http://smoothprofit.blogspot.ca/2012/11/a-glimpse-of-option-strategies-of-karen.html

More updates and highlights:

I wish the exit strategy was disclosed with a little bit more details at the interview. I believe there are exit rules related to both time and value of the options.

After a certain time of entry, like one month, a position may be closed, for a profit (sure) or for a loss (not sure?).

As the value of the options decreases to generate a proft around 15%, the position may be closed. For options that do not face danger (continue to maintain a high probability of success), they will be allowed to expire worthless.

As the value of the options increases to preset potential loss, new options of further out of the money and/or out in time are sold to cover the losses. There are no stop loss schemes used in the system.

This is my understanding. Anyone who has more insights are welcome to commment.

 

http://smoothprofit.blogspot.ca/2013/03/super-trader-karens-portfolio-margin.html

GREAT article! I really enjoyed watching the video with Karen, Tom, and Tony. On thing I don’t understand are Bollinger Bands. What are they and how does Karen use them? What does she mean by 2 standard deviations with the BB?

Thanks!

BB is a common concept used in trading methods that involve applications of statistics. SD determines the upper and lower boundaries of the Bollinger bands if other factors are not changed. 2 SD gives about 95% of probability of ranging within the BB boundary for stock prices. Note this is theoretical only. You can google it for more details.

I believe Karen uses BB in option strike selections since she seeks high probability of success. If the strike price is located outside the BB with 2 SD, the probability reaches over 95%.

http://smoothprofit.blogspot.ca/2013/11/skeptical-about-super-trader-karens.html

 

Investment strategy raw filings  http://www.formds.com/issuers/hope-investments-llc

 

You missed her single most criteria before any of her traders does anything: they presume the market has crashed already. She’s not dealing with the SPX value of any given day at its face. She takes the days SPX price, subtracts 100 from that, and then goes downward another 12% from that still. So she’s basing everything on the fact the market has “already crashed”, which gives her time to react if in fact it does go down sharply.

http://smoothprofit.blogspot.ca/2014/02/a-summary-of-karen-super-traders-option.html

Option Strike Price Selection

Sell far out-of-the-money, high probability options depending on market volatility

  • In 2011 & 2012 when volatility was higher (VIX >= 15), sold puts with 2 SD (5% ITM Probability)
  • In 2013 when volatility was low (VIX around 11 to 13), sold puts with 1 SD (15% ITM Probability) to 1.5 SD (7% ITM Probability)
  • Sell calls with 10% ITM probability

 

Option Cycle Selection

  • 14 days to expiration for calls in general for 2013
  • 56 days to expiration for calls if price can be projected and good premium can be obtained from far above the projected price
    • Use trend analysis including 2 SD Bollinger bands, resistance, and FIB retracements
  • 56 days to expiration for put

See other updated requirements in summary link above

 

As an aside, you can always use delta as an approximation of the probability a strike will expire ITM. Despite the discrete calculation, every platform Think or Swim, Option Vue, Option Monster, IB, etc…all have subtle fluctuations in delta calculations due to smile approximation, individual strike IV calculation, models used, smoothing, etc.
Additionally, use can approximate the probability of touch by using 2*delta.

Study group for this strategy: https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/supertraderkarenstudy/info

Probability method in Think or Swim http://mediaserver.thinkorswim.com/transcripts/touching.pdf

tpreston: Stephan, I’ve found that the front month implied vol is a good indicator of stock volatility going out 30 to 40 days. tpreston: It’s not perfect, but I find it better than using historical volatilities. tpreston: I find it much harder to forecast volatility in individual stocks than indexes. stefanp: “I’ve found that the front month implied vol is a good indicator of stock volatility…” you mean the average ATM call and put volatility tpreston: Stefan, yes, average atm vol

 

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NYSE outage FIX update is Linux

NYSE outage of FIX is Linux


This New York Stock Exchange outage yesterday was due to some upgrade in a configuration in their FIX server. I did find a job description for
their FIX operation which tells me they are using Linux but not Windows. That would have humored me for the next week if that was the case but go
here to see this job description posted at the NYSE. 

Poll show Python popular for trading vs Matlab or R

As you know I have been running a small poll to gauge who is using what programming language for their rapid prototyping for trading ideas.
It turns out that Python leads the way overwhelmingly.

Click here to check out this video.

 

Redis fastest NOSQL with clustering and failover

Personally if you ask me, there should never be outages of any databases any more with this video demonstrating the capabilities of the new
Redis failover and clustering capabilities.

This video is pretty awesome but simple to set up so click here to see it.

 

Thanks for reading

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Meetup update! Trade Like a Pro with Patterns esp ABC

Meetup update!   Trade Like a Pro with Patterns esp ABC

This Meetup description has been updated from Suri at the end:

  • Suri Dudella Meetup: Trade Like a Pro with Patterns esp ABC

    As I have been working on 3 various algos/indicators, I thought I would introduce you to one of the authors behind a promising pattern called Auto ABC patter recognition. Suri Duddella is considered the Godfather of Patterns since he wrote his excellent book,:

    Trade Chart Patterns Like the Pros: Specific Trading Techniques

    http://www.amazon.com/Trade-Chart-Patterns-Like-Pros/dp/1604027215

    More info on his site: http://www.surinotes.com/

    He is also creator of this ABC which can be the base of 15 of the 65 patterns highlighted in this book. I personally managed to get this pattern ported into Matlab and it also shows some interesting promises which I need to further investigate.

    From Suri:

    Success and Failure of Chart Patterns Trading

    * Chart Patterns Modeling
    * Essential Pattern Structure Components & Analysis
    * Practical Statistics of Patterns Success and Failure
    * Examples of Chart Patterns in TradeStation

     

     

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Suri Dudella Meetup: Trade Like a Pro with Patterns esp ABC

Monday, Jun 1, 2015, 7:00 PM

GotoMeeting Webinar online
GotoMeeting Webinar online Toronto, ON

17 Researching Traders Went

Suri Dudella Meetup: Trade Like a Pro with Patterns esp ABCAs I have been working on 3 various algos/indicators, I thought I would introduce you to one of the authors behind a promising pattern called Auto ABC patter recognition. Suri Duddella is considered the Godfather of Patterns since he wrote his excellent book,:Trade Chart Patterns Like the…

Check out this Meetup →

 

Suri Dudella Meetup: Trade Like a Pro with Patterns esp ABC

Monday, Jun 1, 2015, 7:00 PM

16 Members Went

Check out this Meetup →

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Latest update for my automated trading system

More hassles have come about as explained here:

the xlq COM runs out of memory, need to use http://www.jarloo.com/get-yahoo-finance-api-data-via-yql/ (CardStock) Visual Studio project

http://www.jarloo.com/get-yahoo-finance-api-data-via-yql/
take Yahoo data to stuff into a database with required data, use charting to poll data from database
this is more trusted an stable
The pain I am going through!

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Update on video: Which C++ would you use for your number crunching high speed app?

Update on video: Which C++ would you use for your number crunching high speed app?

THIS VIDEO IS NOW UP BUT YOU NEED ELITE ACCESS. Go here if you got it

As you know, we got hacked last week which disrupted our secure video media player. This will be replaced which may take a couple of good hours to redirect all the videos. Once complete,  I will send out an alert to notify that this video is back up! You will need get access via here.

MORE UPDATES:

Good news! I got a replacement video player. I need to replace all private postings with the new code to implement with the new video player. This will take a couple of days but the good news is I will be building an inventory of the really important Private video archive on my 5 years building trading technology and trading ideas!

Happy holidays to all for now

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

DotNet SciChart v3.2.1 Update

DotNet SciChart v3.2.1 Update

We are pleased to announce a Minor Update to SciChart – v3.2.1 Build 5511. This release contains many fixes and some improvements that you have reported over the last few weeks.

SciChart v3.2.1 Build 5511 Released

Join my FREE newsletter to learn more about this cool charting package

(we may use Java instead for now in the future)

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

I need a Java free one as I got a mystery file added to my Dropbox and Windows Update. Scary times indeed!

I need a Java free one as I got a mystery file added to my Dropbox and Windows Update. Scary times indeed!

I am now setting up a Java free zone. This morning my Dropbox had a mysterious file appears called ttt.7z. No one has access to this account nor have I updated.

dropbox-mystery-file

http://f.virscan.org/ttt.7z.html

Next up at the same time was my Java JVM was ‘automatically’ updated as well. Today is Jan 23/14 where it s was last updated again on the 20th.

JavaControlPanel

Why would they send out so many updates in such a short period of time? Does it have so many bugs, security breaches, or new updates? Either way, this technology is now officially flawed. Security breach or not? Goodbye Java as your real crap now. Congrats Mr Ellison and the clowns over at Oracle. I don;t think it matters which operating system you are on. You really botched it!

 

I am starting to feel better already. Screw you Java! Yes I was a developer of this once great language

javaPrograms

 

Find out what my alternatives will be through my FREE newsletter

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Here is my update on Sql Server and dotnet c# being the future of quant for trading platform

Hi there

Here is the latest update on this trading platform.

 

Here is my update on Sql Server and dotnet c# could be the future of quant for trading platform

https://quantlabs.net/blog/2013/09/here-is-my-update-on-sql-server-and-dotnet-c-could-be-the-future-of-quant-for-trading-platform/

In summary, I feel I am close to getting the major parts completed but it is bigger than I thought. I summarize all this in the video but I also highlight the future webinars and online events I will have around this upcoming high speed AUTOMATED TRADING SYSTEM platform. In a nutshell, this is the time if you want to get an affordable platform with both source code and video walkthroughs around it. ALso, once complete, you will see a massive price increase to learn about the same thing at a later date. It won’t even include the live component as that will definitely be a onetime deal. Got questions? Get in on it now.

–> JOIN FOR ACCESS FOR NOW <–

Many more benefits of this Membership benefits here.

Thanks Bryan

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Here is my update on Sql Server and dotnet c# could be the future of quant for trading platform

Here is my update on Sql Server and dotnet c# could be the future of quant for trading platform

Gee. There is so much more to do but I talk about the webinars I will be focusing on

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Current update with Matlab 2013a connecting to Microsoft SQL Server 2012 Oracle MYSQL and Postgres

Current update with Matlab 2013a connecting to Microsoft SQL Server 2012 Oracle MYSQL and Postgres

T his is still a pure hell to accomplish. WIth Matlab 2011, I was only able to connect to MYSQL. I was hoping the integration of SQL Server with Matlab 2013a would be easier but nope Postgres is a mess for WIndows with their ODBC not connecting with Matlab. I may resort back to MYSQL but I got some beefs with Oracle.

Just FYI

Oracle decided only to provide a free 32 bit version with no 64 bit version. Bad decision on the part of Oracle but what can we do. I stand corrected as this does exist!

As for the NOSQL options like MongoDB, no thanks as the Postgres proves to be useless. I like it easy but will give it MYSQL is quite easy. Also, I am not too worried about speed as this Matlab/MYSQL integration is only being used for research and testing. Not  production and trading.

UPDATE: I think Oracle is making it a nightmare to use MYSQL today. The Workbench is kind of useless. It is nowhere as easy to work with separate databases versus the current version. I am dropping this MYSQL

LEARN MORE HOW I WILL USE A DATABASE TO CONNECT TO IN MY FREE NEWSLETTER

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!