Tag Archives: Statistics

Master Hypothesis Testing in Statistics

Master Hypothesis Testing in Statistics

All this is highly useful in your trading analysis

http://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2015/09/hypothesis-testing-explained/?utm_content=bufferca18a&utm_medium=social

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Stark warning for struggling futures and options traders! Statistics proves why the markets work against you! How to win!

Stark warning for struggling futures and options traders! Statistics proves why the markets work against you! How to win!

This is a stark warning you should pay attention. If you want to argue with the markets, they don’t care what you think but this could change your view on how to deal with PROFIT in mind.

 

Sadly, the odds of becoming a successful trader is against you. I prove the odds statically in this video which is essential for your success. I just learned a course to give solid foundation to be a better trader in options and futures. It is free as well courtesy of Apple Itunes U. Full details here:

Believe what you believe. As someone on Twitter said:

Only the Markets will Humble You

I have created another video on the notes of this very powerful course!

You will also find a review of this course here as well!!

If you are interested in being a Quant Elite, go here. (This goes up $250 come FEB 16/2015)

I just posted the last two notes which include:

  • Hedging with options
  • Option trade examples and course review

I hope this opens your eyes to be a more consistent profitable trader.

Bryan

P.S. I am still posting private charts in my Facebook profile.

These include:

  • Change in production and consumption of oil millions per barrels per day
  • Annual average gasoline prices inflation adjusted
  •  (Video) of Most jobs in America are for government wild manufacturing construction retail hospitality dro
  • Stock market capitalization as a percent of GDP
  • Global consumer price index trends with China America euro
NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

QuantStart.com posted Bayesian Statistics: A Beginner’s Guide in Python

QuantStart.com posted Bayesian Statistics: A Beginner’s Guide in Python

From the NYC Contact so thanks to him for that

http://www.quantstart.com/articles/Bayesian-Statistics-A-Beginners-Guide

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

I am Using statistics to assess risk of a stock vs S & P 500 index for performance

I have Very cool to script to help me assess the risk moving forward on particular market asset –

Using statistics to assess risk of a stock vs S & P 500 index for performance comparison – See more 

 

Don’t forget tonight!

 

Pow wow talk on Trading Idea Generation Metrics and Indicators What are your metrics or indicators do you use for trading idea generation?

I am looking at compiling a list.

Comment here below.

I am currently using EPS, Market Cap, beta, implied volatility, and basic descriptive stats – See more

Or at my blog to add your comments: https://quantlabs.net/blog/2014/10/what-are-your-metrics-or-indicators-do-you-use-for-trading-idea-generation/

http://www.meetup.com/quant-finance/events/211983322/

http://www.meetup.com/R-Matlab-Users/events/211983782/

Thanks for reading

Bryan

 

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Using statistics to assess risk of a stock vs S & P 500 index for performance comparison

Using statistic to assess risk of a stock vs S & P 500 index for performance comparison

Very cool to script to help me assess the risk moving forward on particular market asset

Join my FREE newsletter to see what other cool scripts I come up with my Internal automated trading system

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Use statistics and probability with normal distribution returns for price movement analysis and exposure to reduce risk of trading loss?

Use statistics and probability with normal distribution returns for price movement analysis and exposure to reduce risk of trading loss?

There is a video in the link!

Can you predict which days will be up or down for trading potential? If not, see below using stats and probability as those days are not much as it appears. There are many things against you. What is below is sort of mumbo jumbo but this is a crust of my upcoming analytics signalling service. This could be scary if you fully don’t understand so see the last two paragraphs.

Sometimes, your bell curve may show fat tails which could spell out extreme profit potential or high risk potential:

See more

There is so much learn at this posting.

I will be posting some exciting resource for all my members of my Quant Elite service.

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

How to use statistics and probability with normal distribution for price movement analysis and exposure to reduce risk of trading loss?

How to use statistics and probability with normal distribution returns for price movement analysis and exposure to reduce risk of trading loss?

There is a video below!

Can you predict which days will be up or down for trading potential? If not, see below using stats and probability as those days are not much as it appears. There are many things against you. What is below is sort of mumbo jumbo but this is a crust of my upcoming analytics signalling service. This could be scary if you fully don’t understand so see the last two paragraphs.

Sometimes, your bell curve may show fat tails which could spell out extreme profit potential or high risk potential:

Fat Tail, Risk Budgeting, Factor Analysis & Stress Testing

http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/analysis/1603830/capturing-fat-tails

In Excel, you could use Data Analysis add in with Descriptive Statistics for summary stats. Use returns for input.

Mean is average return of index (i.e. S&P 500) over historical period of asset your analyze. It should be always be positive if you analyze S&P since 1960s.

Median is middle of data set. If median is higher than mean that says the average is more positive over the mean or opposite would be more extreme if negative.

Standard deviation (SD) is dispersion of the distribution data. i.e. 68% of standard deviation 1 lies within the mean. Could also calculate normal vs actual with percentage for each. 68% of trading days that lie within SD 1the mean of the trading distribution. 95% will be for SD 2 and 99% of SD 3.

Kurtosis and skewness means if data is normally distributed. Kurtosis is a measure of how the data has peaked. High skewness can show the data could peak more than usual within a normal distribution with fatter tails. If you have a negative skewness, that means the fat tail are negative which means than the positive tail. Extreme negative movements are more likely to happen than positive.

Probabilities for new bins of frequencies within the distribution table. Thus the frequency of ranges from within the distribution table

=# of trading days in interval/total number of trading days in distribution table (in formula cell, press F4 for $ around on denominator to fix cell). This is represented in a cumulative representation.

You could also filter returns to understand subsets of data. We could look at an average of a subset.

Data->Filter

Average return is calculated is the same as mean.

Want to understand the negative and positive of the returns of each average return with Data->Filter

If you calculate the frequency of positive vs negative, you could estimate market direction with probability. Predict average return when S&P 500 will go up when you long for x days, you forecast the daily return of this period. ****You will soon see that the percentage the market goes up is slim with negative days, transactions costs, and volatility against you. The forecasted’ “Average return” tells you this.

Also calculate the standard deviation (SD) returns as well with SD of 1-3 above the mean. Calculate the upper and lower of each SD above/below the mean. You could find the average number of days that lie within these ranges.

In summary, be aware:

In essence, since S&P 500 moves less at the extreme, it is harder to generate revenue with other assets. In OTW, our trading opportunities are minimal when you factor in AVERAGE returns on a daily basis when volatility is low.

*** You can also say that there are greater risks in the extremity of the tails of the distribution. They can be more probable than you think so there could be days where you could get wiped out in your account. There could be for example of 1 day per 100 where the market moves more than 3% which could wipe you out if you have the position the wrong way.

You could apply this logic over any period on any asset.

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5 Basic Statistics For for Forecasting the Market for your profitable Trading

5 Basic Statistics For for Forecasting the Market for your profitable Trading

Use 1,2,3,5,10,20,50,100,200 day numbers for the following:

1) Price Move Percentage
2) ATR – Average True Range
3) MAD – Mean Absolute Deviation
4) Autocorrelation Percentage
5) VPIN – volume synchronized probability of informed trading

All according to Sholom so thanks to him

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Remind me never to go fo FU**KING to Wharton with their POTENTIAL Statistics Professors using profanity like this

Remind me never to go fo FU**KING to Wharton with their POTENTIAL Statistics Professors using profanity like this

I love waking up to comments like this:

it is fuc*ing annoy when you zoom in and zoom out without any purpose!!!!

For a video where you try to help people out for what …wait for it..nothing.

First of all, lets hope we got the right guy but this is what Google dug up

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~zongming/

If this is the right guy:

Now, you may ask, is this ‘professor’ wannabe not all that smart? Also, If I was Dean of the Math Dept at Wharton I would be punching myself in the face for hiring a moron like this. He really represents the whole school in such positive light of good old Wharton. Good one.

But remember, this is under condition that we got the right guy.

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Youtube video on Importance of math in pure quant with Matlab’s Statistics toolbox capabilities

Youtube video on Importance of math in pure quant with Matlab’s Statistics toolbox capabilities

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!