Tag Archives: Nassim Taleb

Another week another billion for Black Swan Nassim Taleb hedge fund

Black Swan Nassim Taleb hedge fund billionaire

At my recent local meet up, I was informed of this story. It was quite interesting when you take a pessimistic look that you could make billions in one week. Well the King of Blackswan events did just that!

 

Read the story here

 

Well over the last couple of days, I have come across some rather interesting new directions.

 

First I can say I have demoed another Interactive Brokers application to showcase the Java API.

 

Go here to see the video

 

As I was talking to Ivan in the wee hours of the night, I came up with an idea that may simplify and empower many non-programming traders using my current workflow.

 

Go here to see my idea via video

 

As you can tell, I am ramping up quite quickly to demonstrate pieces of this Karen super trader strategy with the necessary plumbing of Redis message queues and Interactive Brokers order capabilities. Once complete, I will post all the source code and necessary files to the Quant Elite membership. I will also do a live Q&A demo through my Meetup groups on Google Hangout.

–> GO HERE FOR IMMEDIATE ACCESS <–

 

Thanks for reading

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Black Swan Nassim Taleb hedge fund billionaire

Black Swan Nassim Taleb hedge fund billionaire

See bad new pessimism gets you places

http://www.businessinsider.com/nassim-talebs-universa-investments-crushed-it-2015-8

What would happen if you found a way to analyse the markets to confirm your trading ideas? 

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Nassim Taleb Bloomberg Quant Finance summary and notes

Nassim Taleb Bloomberg Quant Finance summary and notes

May 29th 2015 Bloomberg Quant Finance Seminar:
Nassim Taleb Presented ‘The Law of Large Numbers in the Real World’
Takeaways:
– Fat Tails exist can be described by some negative exponent Alpha
– The Tail or Alpha distribution is Normal even though the Price
and Return distributions are not ( Use Pareto or Power Law Distribution for them, 80/20 Rule)
– Minimum sample space needed for convergence to a stable moment: Normal – 30, Pareto – 10^14 (100 Trillion)
– Asked Nassim about what type of historical financial data he used
He responded that I should take a look at his paper. But I suspect it is mostly monte carlo generated data. I didn’t find any specific data sources yet. But he claimed to be able to capture the fat tail
behavior of the SPX, by finding a stable moment in the power law
distribution, K*Alpha* X^ -Alpha
– Julien Guyon (Author: NonLinear Option Pricing) didn’t think there
was any info on how to price options in Nassim’s Lecture.
– Any distribution using a financial time series sample space
would be finite and thin-tailed with compact support in time and price.

Thanks to the NYC Contact for sending this

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Nassim Taleb: How Increasing Benefits Increases the Risk of Ruin

Nassim Taleb: How Increasing Benefits Increases the Risk of Ruin

This is a video sent out by the NYC Contact so thanks to him for that

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Debate video of Nassim Taleb and Sornette debate

Debate video of Nassim Taleb and Sornette debate

 

http://www.wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=38&threadid=96914

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Debate: Black Swan Author Nassim Taleb vs Didier Sornette

 

Debate: Black Swan Author Nassim Taleb vs Didier Sornette

From the NYC Contact so thanks to him
Nassim:

1) Your dynamic models are too sensitive to small input parameter changes, Power Laws/Distributions are very sensitive to change in alpha (tail exponent).

2) In the real world, an engineer needs an AntiFragile approach to building and testing a Bridge.

3) Dragon Kings are actually Gray Swans named by Taleb and Mandelbrot.

4) Your dynamic models can expose you to concave risk (i.e are fragile). Concave risk when exposed to a random variable has a negative nonlinear response and is therefore fragile.

Didier:

1) My models don’t use Power Distributions, they use (here I’m not sure what he said, I think Stable distributions is what he uses).

2) Your AntiFragile Method is static, you lack the time dimension. An engineer needs to test the bridge dynamically in the time dimension (i.e tests need to be performed over time and under a variety of different weather conditions).
3) I like the Dragon King name, It sounds much better.

4) My models don’t give a precise time prediction thus they are not concave fragile, They allow you to estimate possible turning/inflection points where you can take convex/antifragile risks.

They both agree on the following:

1) Dynamic models are useful to estimate turning points/pockets of prediction in an otherwise non-predictive environment.

2) That you need Dynamic Modeling with a time dimension for identifying high probability trade setups,(but not for precise predictions), and you need a convex/AntiFragile approach when putting on actual trades.

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There was an epic battle Too-big-to-fail between Larry Summers, Black Swan Event author Nassim Taleb

There was an epic battle  Too-big-to-fail between Larry Summers, Black Swan Event author Nassim Taleb

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/15/too-big-to-fail-battle-between-larry-summers-nassim-taleb/?mod=WSJBlog&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

ANother interest article related: http://brucewilds.blogspot.ca/2014/05/facing-our-economic-armageddon.html

This was highlighted by the NYC Contact so thanks to him

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Youtube interview on Bloomberg with Nassim Taleb Agitated and Animated by the Announcement of FedChairman Ben Bernanke QE 2

Youtube interview on Bloomberg with Nassim Taleb Agitated and Animated by the Announcement of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke QE 2

This is funny but thanks to the NYC Contact for sending

P.S. The sky is falling

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!