Binary Option: how well they predict market sentiment and which brokers offer an API interface to their platform?
There are interesting patterns on close higher/lower binaries for major currencies for example. I doubt if the can predict anything as they seem to use Black-Scholes model or anything of this kind. However the most fat things occur during news releases. I am not sure if it’s possible to get historical data for them though, but you may try using IG Markets + ProRealtime with paid subscription. Also I am not aware of any API provided by spreadbetters like them, but I might be well behind, so do your own search and inform us if you find anything please.
NOTE I now post myTRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!
Can you use Twitter to predict or forecast stock market activity and market sentiment and trends?
Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e., can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing their ability to detect the public’s response to the presidential election and Thanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis and a Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Network are then used to investigate the hypothesis that public mood states, as measured by the OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are predictive of changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that the accuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved by the inclusion of specific public mood dimensions but not others. We find an accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6%.
Here is a conversation on reddit.com which pretty well inspired me tostart thinking about blending my knowledge of technology and financial investment. This was pretty inspiring where an indie software engineer launched his own business. He is now clearing
I’ve used everything from neural nets, SVMs, particle swarm optimization, to artificial immune systems. I have a significant investment in automated news analysis, specifically sentiment interpretation.
I wish to learn more about this. I want to apply my knowledge of mathematics, statistics and programming. But I do realize I need to train under someone. Since that is not immediately possible what do you recommend as far as subscribing to services like befriendthetrend.com just to get a feel for trading based on their strategies and methods. Will it substitute having a real trainer if I diligently analyse trades and participate in online forums.
A friend of mine, an institutional trader, got me into thinking about it seriously one night after I was bitching to him about how much money my money manager was losing for me.
At first I started out on Asian/European markets so I could trade real-time while I wasn’t at work, and then slowly started automating things which I could monitor while at work. At the point where I was confident that I could provide for myself, I quit and went full time.