Tag Archives: long-term

2014 long term hedging bets: That is why I’m short es and long silver and gold equities

THis came in from someone on my Linked In so thanks to them !

2014 long term hedging bets:  That is why Im short es and long silver and gold equities

Someone recommended this. Sounds smart?

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EI DuPont De Nemours & Co DD Poised For Long-Term Growth

EI DuPont De Nemours & Co DD Poised For Long-Term Growth

I’ve been analyzing the next energy growth areas and if there’s any one company feeling the multiplier effect of the natural gas and shale fracking industries.

One potential area is the chemicals field, and one of the most prospective players is DD or EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. At first, they don’t appear to be part of this sector. But as I investigated them, it appears Zack’s feels they’re a beneficiary of low natural gas prices relative to their overseas competition:

“A string of factors are driving growth in the export markets including favorable energy costs stemming from the abundance of shale gas and strong demand from the emerging markets. Affordable natural gas and ethane (derived from shale gas) offer U.S. producers a compelling cost advantage over their global counterparts who use a more expensive, oil-based feedstock.”

So Dupont gets a natural (GAS) advantage over its international competition.

And there’s a second boost to provide a nice double one-two punch for this stock: as global worries expand in Europe and Asia, this creates opportunities in American agriculture. This is a key area for Dupont, seeing as how they provide chemicals to the farming industry.

In fact, this scenario makes me think this stock could go gangbusters with long term returns no matter which way the global economy goes. Everyone needs crops for which farmers must buy fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides, and other DD products.

And no matter which presidential candidate gets into the White House this fall, they’ll still press for domestic energy. Strong agricultural demand for chemicals coupled with low energy costs. Makes sense to me.

And here’s another thing. DD has underperformed against the S&P 500 over the last eight months. If you at the charts generated by my system, DD hits a bottom late May with a nice bounce over June.

(click to enlarge)
So what’s my general assessment? This is a long term play where Dupont could surprise many. Chemical companies are well positioned to ride out the unpredictable markets over the long run. This is a good one for those who believe in the buy and hold mentality.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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I wonder if Technical Analysis is a reliable tool to depend on for long term forecasting?

I wonder if Technical Analysis is a reliable tool to depend on for long term forecasting?

Can we really use technical analysis to make long-term forecasts of market? – I am probably preaching to the converted here, but I believe technical analysis is a good way of interpreting short-term market moves, and identifying probabilities of direction in the short-term, I am not necessarily convinced it is reliable as a long-term forecasting tool. – But I hope some of you can convince me otherwise.

 

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Interesting Question:

I would start with the hypothesis: Is there any method that can be used for ‘reliable’ long-term forecasting? – I think there are just too many variables which hinder ‘reliable’ long-term forecasting, though we can make general long-term forecasts, but they are still probability events at best.

I’ll give you a simple analogy. – Without knowing very much about soccer I can get all the stats of previous performance over the past 100 years of International soccer countries and tell you that out of 200 soccer countries with a high degree of probability which ones will probably have a good chance of winnig the Soccer World cup in 10 years time. – E.g. there is a good chance it will be perhaps Brazil or Argentina or Germany, Italy or Spain. that does not mean I will be right, but it is highly likely I will be close. Nearer the time my forecasting maybe more accurate, I may be able to hevily discount one or two of those countries and add some other countries.

Or fundamentally without studying performance stats but knowing a lot about soccer I could probably come to similar conclusion.

 

 

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Simply put……..T/A has the same potential whatever timeframe you choose to use. Its all down to pattern recognition and some subjectivity, but ultimately the same analysis applies. If you observed charts without the time reference there should be no difference in outlook!

 

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What’s your long term? 1 year or 5 year.
Agree with neil

 

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“In the long run, we are all dead,” John Maynard Keynes
Charts are transparent to the timeframe. But I think to keep a long or short long term position you have to work both with fundamental and technical data

 

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I am a Professional Technical Analyst. – I do private commissioned work for individuals at Hedge funds and banks, involving in depth analysis and co-ordination with the fundamental environment. – the only reason I state this is to establish some credibility rather than for publicity or marketing purposes.

I do not share peoples opinion that Tech Analysis is a good long-term forecasting tool, but then neither is Fundamental Analysis, I happen to believe that there is no reliable method for long-term forecasting, nor is there any real need for it. – To use analogies, I don’t care whether it rains or is sunny 5 years from now. – I do believe that Technical Analysis is a fantastic tool for establishing exactly what the current and immediate environment is, and one can use this to help try and establish good risk/reward trades which hopefully will bring their rewards tomorrow, next week or next month, whatever your time-frame is.

 

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Do large intraday reversals always signal a continuation in the latter direction in the short term/long term?

Do large intraday reversals always signal a continuation in the latter direction in the short term/long term?
–I don’t have any statistics related to your question, but I know that many intraday reversals are only intraday traders inventory adjustments. –Many such intraday reversals are inventory adjustment as as Michele replied or trapped traders squaring off. Not all intraday reversals fall into this category. Watch the price action next day, if it revisits the prior day reversal levels, then it is likely to be inventory adjustment.
–Any Trend Reversal will begin with an Intraday Reversal but all Intraday Reversals will not be Trend Reversals. I dont have the Statistics but can tell you the probability will be very low. But if you are aware of Crucial Levels and you see a Reversal at those levels you can catch the down Move Early.

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Quant development and HFT: Proof Windows HPC Server 2008 with Excel 2010 is as fast as Linux and cheaper over the long term

Quant development and HFT: Proof Windows HPC Server 2008 with Excel 2010 is as fast as Linux and cheaper over the long term

As I get into deployment of Windows HPC 2008 versus Linux. The winner seems to be Windows HPC

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Microsoft-s-Windows-HPC-Server-2008-R2-Is-Available-157203.shtml

http://www.crn.com/news/applications-os/227500367/microsoft-windows-hpc-server-cheaper-than-linux.htm

Check the comment of this Japanese supercomputer comment:

http://www.redmondpie.com/windows-based-supercomputer-passes-petaflop-barrier-but-still-falls-short-of-linux/

http://www.techrepublic.com/whitepapers/university-finds-windows-hpc-server-26-faster-than-linux-more-cost-effective/1097809

 

Big advantage with Visual Studio 2010 development tools which is very true:

http://www.networkcomputing.com/servers-storage/229502390

 

http://www.hpcwire.com/hpcwire/2010-04-08/microsoft_injects_more_goodies_into_windows_hpc.html

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Heavily bearish on US long-term Treasuries

Heavily bearish on US long-term Treasuries

US 10 yr and 30 yr Treasury yields were driven down severely by panicky equity investors despite the downgrade. People still believe the conventional wisdom that when equities go down, go for bonds. But with disappointing economic data, the credit market will only keep deteriorating and it will get harder and harder to borrow money for long term. The Fed’s promise on interest rate and potential QE3 can do nothing but make US bonds worth less

 

But as long as panic in equity market exists, the yield in treasuries will decline, ppl who hold treasuries will gain.

I  am with ya. I would begin a pyramid into the short-side today

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What does this have to do with automated trading strategies?

 

I agree with you in terms of short term. In mid and long run, I believe the credit situation will deteriorate. Unconfirmed source says there’s already institutional investors bidding for US 10 yr at 4% – 5%. True or not, it makes sense to me.

I would be great to short the market yesterday but definitely not today. 🙂 The market probably will be very volatile for a while.

Thanks for replying. I agree it is not necessarily related to auto-trading. But I guess sharing ideas about the financial world should not be a bad thing here.

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It might be helpful to understand human traits in Auto-trading strats- No? a great time to start a pyramid..well too late , already started it. …aren’t markets great!

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I’m sorry I didn’t get it. what do you mean by pyramid? thanks

 

—-I agree with you in terms of long run. But how are they bidding 10 year T at 4% to 5% when the yield is around 2.27% right now. Thanks

 

 

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!