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probability of a loss secret sauce tricks of Renaissance Technologies HFT masters

 

Sweet Mama. This is the closest I have gotten to this secret sauce eof Ren Tech black swan risk and probability of a loss tricks

From someone who knew all the founders of Ren Tech:

I have known Jim Simons, Bob Mercer and Peter Brown since 1965, 1974, and 1979, respectively.  Renaissance has also hired senior researchers who had formerly worked for me for years.  None of these people has ever told me anything about Renaissance’s investment strategies.  My observations below have been obtained entirely from publicly available records.

In particular, the core strategy is publicly known.  It’s the details that are proprietary.  There are millions of details, and they are essential to the performance.  However, the question was about strategy, so that is what I will try to answer.

The core strategy is portfolio-level statistical arbitrage carried to the limit and executed extremely well.  Basically, portfolios of long and short positions are created that hedge out market risk, sector risk and any other kind of risk that Renaissance can statistically predict.  The extreme degree of hedging reduces that net rate of return but the volatility of the portfolio is reduced by an even greater factor.  The standard deviation of the value of the portfolio at a future date is much lower than its expected value.  Therefore, with a large number of trades the law of large numbers assures that the probability of a loss is very small.  In such a situation, leverage multiplies both the expected return and the volatility by the same multiple, so even with a high leverage the probability of a loss remains very small.

The general properties of the strategy can be deduced from the statement of Renaissance for the Hearing of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, dated July 22, 2014.  [https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&…

Renaissance collects “all publicly available data [they] can that [they] believe might bear on the movement of prices of tradable instruments–news stories, analysts’ reports, energy reports, crop reports, weather reports, regulatory findings, accounting data, and, of course, quotes and trades from markets around the world.”

Their models “use this data to make predictions about future price changes.”

The hearing was specifically about the Medallion fund, about which the statement says “The model developed by Renaissance for Medallion makes predictions that are profitable only slightly more often than not.”

With these properties, there were two reasons that Renaissance would like to have a call option on the portfolio that it has designed: leverage and protection against Black Swan events.

Leverage is needed because, unleveraged, the rate of return of the portfolio is low.  However, because the volatility is much less than the expected return there is no limit to how high the leverage could be without increasing the probability of a loss, at least according to the models.  Through years of use and refinement, Renaissance knows that its models are very reliable.  However, they also know that there is always the risk of something happening that is not covered by the models, in particular something that is outside prior experience, which is called a “Black Swan” event.

Thus, a call option is ideal: it can provide high leverage and can provide protection both against the very low probability of a loss greater than the option premium and also against the unknown probability of a possibly catastrophic loss due to a Black Swan event.

We know all this because these are the business reasons for Renaissance accepting Deutsche Bank’s proposal of barrier options.  Basically, Deutsche Bank, and later Barclays,  sold the equivalent of a call option to Renaissance on the reference portfolio that Renaissance designed.

Of course, writing an uncovered call on the Renaissance portfolio would be equivalent to betting against Renaissance at high leverage, which would seem to be a foolish thing to do.  The banks covered these options by buying all of the securities in the portfolio.  Thus the bank’s position was equivalent to a covered call.  In other words, the banks’ profits and risks were essentially equivalent to writing a put option, which is a bullish position.  Because the volatility was very low the probability of a loss for the bank was low and the probability of a loss greater than the option premium was even lower.

Except for the Black Swan risk.  The probability of a Black Swan risk is unknown.  Part of the premium paid by Renaissance and earned by the banks was equivalent to insurance against Black Swan risk.  I don’t know if the amounts of the premiums were publicly disclosed.

There were many more details in the statements and the testimony at the hearings.  However, discussion of further details would detract from the important points that I have made above.  In particular, the hearings themselves were about tax issues not about investment strategies.  Renaissance explicitly asserted, under oath, that its “models do not factor in tax rates when making trading decisions.”  Therefore, tax issues, although they might be very important, are not part of the “investment strategy” at least as reflected in the models, so they are outside the scope of this particular discussion.

[Edit (added in answer to a comment):  The reference portfolio was highly dynamic.  There were thousands of  trades per day.  To accomplish this, the banks gave RenTech’s computers  direct access to execute trades through the banks’ trading desks.

This  arrangement was part of what created controversy about what should  be the proper tax treatment for this particular case. However, I am not a  tax lawyer and will not try to analyze those issues.  However, if you  want to hear more details on the automatic execution of the trades, and  questions about how much human interaction was present, that is all  discussed in the live testimony before the subcommittee: [Hearings| Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs]

I have copied this in case the Quora link disappears which is from

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-investment-strategies-of-James-Simons-Renaissance-Technologies-I-understand-he-employs-complex-mathematical-models-along-with-statistical-analyses-to-predict-non-equilibrium-changes

Notes from Senate hearings include:

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/subcommittees/investigations/hearings/abuse-of-structured-financial-products_misusing-basket-options-to-avoid-taxes-and-leverage-limits

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/STMT%20-%20Renaissance%20(July%2022%202014)2.pdf

Copy attached just in case that disappears

STMT – Renaissance (July 22 2014)2

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Anyone use Sentosa HFT C++ project? #anyone #C++ #HFT #project #Sentosa Anyone use HFT C++ project? Some dude sent this to mistaking me for the author. Anyone ever use or try it? http://www.quant365.com/post/58/ #sthash.kaP7SI1J.dpbs Link: https://quantlabs.net/blog/2019/03/anyone-use-sentosa-hft-c-project/

Anyone use Sentosa HFT C++ project? #C++ Anyone use HFT C++ project? Some dude sent this to mistaking me for the author. Anyone ever use or try it? http://www.quant365.com/post/58/ #sthash.kaP7SI1J.dpbs Link: https://quantlabs.net/blog/2019/03/anyone-use-sentosa-hft-c-project/

[igp-video src=”” poster=”https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/vp/e1278a50afa478834d4644da194a75c1/5D454E49/t51.2885-15/sh0.08/e35/s640x640/54800466_2330863383613750_164108622620179270_n.jpg?_nc_ht=scontent.cdninstagram.com” size=”large”]
Anyone use Sentosa HFT C++ project? #anyone #C++ #HFT #project #Sentosa Anyone use HFT C++ project? Some dude sent this to mistaking me for the author. Anyone ever use or try it? http://www.quant365.com/post/58/ #sthash.kaP7SI1J.dpbs Link: https://quantlabs.net/blog/2019/03/anyone-use-sentosa-hft-c-project/

HOW DO YOU START A PROFITABLE TRADING BUSINESS? Read more NOW >>>

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Anyone use Sentosa HFT C++ project?

Anyone use HFT C++ project?

Some dude sent this to mistaking me for the author. Anyone ever use or try it?

http://www.quant365.com/post/58/#sthash.kaP7SI1J.dpbs

Some video links

http://www.quant365.com/blog#sthash.xa7V1UTT.dpbs

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

New algo trading quant HFT private chat is now working!

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RenTech HFT Hedge Fund Sees ‘Significant’ Risk of Correction

RenTech HFT Hedge Fund Sees ‘Significant’ Risk of Correction

Here is some quotes on this forecast:

“However, with higher rates and more volatility a distinct possibility, there is a significant risk that asset prices will correct,” he said.

“While the fear of missing out may not be a concern for equity investors, increasing euphoria mixed with a bit of complacency certainly is,” he said. “Historically low levels of volatility may well have given investors a false sense of security in the nearly two years since the last market correction.”

“Who is going to buy the paper the Federal Reserve accumulated during the years of quantitative easing? If the Chinese reassess their appetite for U.S. debt, rates will have to move up to finance the projected $700 billion U.S. deficit this year,” he said.

“While we cannot know when that will happen with the current markets, we are doing our best to prepare for what may be turbulence ahead,” he wrote.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/renaissance-hedge-fund-sees-significant-risk-of-correction

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Focus on Jim Simons RenTech HFT Quant Manager

Guru focus on Jim Simons RenTech HFT Quant Manager

Most depth on his strategies including a SEC brochure from them

There is even more articles being posted from the New York but watch my video to see how this the funds at RenTech work.

 

https://quantlabs.net/blog/2017/12/guru-focus-on-jim-simons-rentech-hft-quant-manager/

 

After some careful insight with my providers, it looks like I will be pushing new people into this list where I will sending out notices on my podcast within this list. As a result, there is no need to move over. Hooray for that.

Thanks Bryan a

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Jim Simons the HFT hedge fund: the Numbers King

Jim Simons the HFT hedge fund: the Numbers King

Yet another article about this famous quant manager

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Guru focus on Jim Simons RenTech HFT Quant Manager

Guru focus on Jim Simons RenTech HFT Quant Manager

Most depth on his strategies including a SEC brochure from them

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/609704/jim-simons-pioneer-quant-manager

https://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Content/Common/crd_iapd_Brochure.aspx?BRCHR_VRSN_ID=440746

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Hard interview questions for RenTech HFT job

Tough interview questions for RenTech HFT job. i  would not get into the front door with these tough ones

Hint: You better be a master at C++ and Linux hardcore fan

https://quantlabs.net/blog/2017/11/tough-interview-questions-for-rentech-hft-job/

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I have pulled all blog posts and videos related to my ongoing forex strategy. So far so good on testing. I am also currently testing the exit strategy part which I will report back in a few days once complete.

Note: All of this content is made available until this Sunday. It will permanently disappear after that. which is only available through my Quant Elite members. I have extend the promoted deal until tonite which means it will go back to its normal price!

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Tough interview questions for RenTech HFT job

Tough interview questions for RenTech HFT job
i would not get into the front door with these tough ones

Hint: You better be master at C++ and Linux hardcore

https://www.glassdoor.ca/Interview/Renaissance-Technologies-LLC-Interview-Questions-E19369.htm

 

 

 

 

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