Tag Archives: failure

Will Expectancy and Prospect Theory help in backtest failure 

 

Will Expectancy and Prospect Theory help in backtest failure

This is from my virtual Meetup below but this was suggested to improve this back testing process:

prospect theory 

http://www.vantharp.com/tharp-concepts/expectancy.asp

This all comes from this posting

Does this make sense? Or what would you suggest ? Comment in the Youtube video section.

 

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Installation failure with Quantopian Pyfolio 

 

Massive failure with Quantopian Pyfolio

Over the weekend I tried to install both Zipline and Pyfolio (open source packages from Quantopian) into my Python environments. I have both Python 2.7 and 3.6. After the attempt of implementation, both packages completely failed my out of box tests which is a rare event for me. I am not sure if it was coding or some glitch in the installation process. The lesson to be learned here is that there is in fact better alternatives for the same functionality you would get with a cloud service like Quatopian. The best part is you own and control every single step when it comes to generating your trading to systematically submitting your order to a broker. In a nutshell, I would never let an external company or service ever own those processes including black box technology.

Here is a video of my attempt to use this PyFolio Python package.

Input caption text here. Use the block’s Settings tab to change the caption position and set other styles.
We tried another one but why do these keep failing when trying to implement
If you see something that looks wrong, let me know as I would love to learn my missteps.

I just recorded my first ‘bonus video’ of learning last night. It is a 40 minute explaining the topics below. As you know, I will be putting this video up on my Shopify account for both my Quant Analytic Members or anyone who joins over the next few days. This video will stay up for a very limited time which makes this download opportunity very very limited as I have mentioned in the past.

JOIN MY ANALYTICS SERVICE FOR THIS BONUS VIDEO
Att: For any of my paying members who may read this, please goto the membership area for your limited download coupon code for your FREE download. Again, this will be up for a limited time.

 

Thanks for reading

 

P.S. Lastly for those watching my next set of topics of these ‘bonus videos’, please note these topics are coming shortly so be on the lookout for them:

1. New development to integrate MySQL database for Dukascopy JForex access to communicate with open source BackTrader Python package.

2.. Updated Position Manager to replace MongoDB database calls with new MySQL needs. Complete walkthrough video of this powerful script will be coming. This is used for controlling virtual stop losses, target pricing, and tight intelligent risk control measures for open positions.

3. Complete walk through multi asset Watchlist manager of assets/instruments of interest for potential automated trading orders.

All of these three new videos will be highly limited no different than the first one from last nite.

 

P.P.S. here are the topics for this first ‘bonus video’ from last last nite’s live recording:

 

1. Demo examples of some forward looking data sets used from Federal Reserve with rationale of use

2. Interpretation how to use for accurate forecasting future/options, forex, and stock market asset classes.

3. Explanation of importance on rational of how USA impacts rest of world in all global asset classes

4. Sample high level demos of how to use with some Python coding

 

Sw what are you waiting for? Join this exclusive Quant Analytics members as you get rare sneak peak views of my new updates automated trading system for both Interactive Brokers and Dukascopy forex trading. This will not last foreever.

 

JOIN MY ANALYTICS SERVICE FOR THIS BONUS VIDEO
Here is my some sample product from my Shopify account

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Another massive failure with Quantopian Pyfolio and Jupytr Notebooks

Another massive failure with Quantopian Pyfolio and Jupytr Notebooks

We tried another one but why do these keep failing when trying to implement

https://github.com/quantopian/pyfolio/tree/master/pyfolio

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More long term trading success vs failure?

More long term trading success vs failure?

So I sent this out yesterday:

https://quantlabs.net/blog/2015/05/hedge-fund-is-your-1-path-to-a-billion/

I got a response via someone in my newsletter:

Bryan, this is very moving statement. I’m confident that the community you created will support you in  many future successes and few failures.

I think we will have more failures at the beginning which hopeful long term success after our initial testing. This is usual but this is the real reason why i will start betting instead of trading. We call it baby steps instead of going big in the outset to potentially blow out your account early. Let’s hope I am right for the long term successes.

Join my FREE newsletter to learn more about these long term trading goals 

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A Super Committee Failure: Does it Matter?


A Super Committee Failure: Does it Matter?

Many have argued that the failure of the congressional Super Committee to produce $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction over a ten year period could lead to major turmoil in financial markets. According to this view, in the face…

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The “Super Committee” was nothing but political theater from the beginning. No one that I have spoke with ever expected it to come up with anything meaningful and the reaction from both sides the minute the failure was announced pretty much confirms that premise.

Had they succeeded in finding $1.2 Trillion in “cuts” over 10 years you are really only talking about $120 Billion out of $3.6 Trillion currently being spent with projected increases of 5-8% annually because of the way congress establishes it’s budget. That would be the equivalent of Danica Patrick trying to brake her race car using stiletto heels (yes I could have used a different analogy but come on…Danica Patrick driving a stock car in stiletto heels…!).

The biggest issue concerning the debt is the speed of growth over the last 10 years and the lack of desire by the political establishment to take any serious action about it while we can still borrow at historically low interest rates. Instead we have seen a government that is hell bent on growing itself under any circumstance at the expense of private sector investment. Private sector GDP (GDP less government spending) has been flat for the last decade making it more difficult to pay for current spending demands let alone long term debt.

Once we reach the tipping point where we cannot pay our way out through the private sector (remember, government employees pay no taxes), the Fed will have no choice but to inflate it’s way out of debt and THAT is the real risk to the equity markets.

When that point is reached is anyone’s guess, but I’d rather see something done now instead of waiting for it to get worse.

 

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Let’s be honest and admit the super committee was set up as a strategic political ploy to blame republicans as the do nothing party for the reelection campaign. It was never meant to scale back the baseline spending that the American public wants. What it does show is that America needs to start really getting serious about implementing term limits on elected officials and only then can we start getting fiscal discipline, when elected officials are not a permanent fixture in the government. Markets would respond best to better government management and efficiency. Not bureaucracy and inefficiency

 

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Prediction: Major bank failure in Southern Europe will lead to run on banks. Same as 1931 in Great Depression

Prediction: Major bank failure in Southern Europe will lead to run on banks. Same as 1931 in Great Depression

it has been predicted this could happen if a Spanish or Italian fails. It will cause a run on the local banks which will lead to a cascade of global contagion including USA and Europe. The world will follow. This is what happened in 1931 when a bunch of German banks failed. This is apparently what lead to the Great Depress ion to be ‘great’. Europe may not be saved due to the pathetic leadership of 27 European Untion nations who cannot agree on anything. Why should the German tax payer pay for Greeks who like to drink Ouzo on the beach?

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Thesis on “the factors of success and failure of hedge funds”

Thesis on “the factors of success and failure of hedge funds”
hello all, currently I am doing my thesis on “the factors of success and failure of hedge funds” and I wanted to know if any of you has an answer or an opinion on this subject. For those who are willing to take 15 minutes of their time I have a questionnaire to submit. In return I will send the results of my study.
(1) too much leverage and not understanding what happens to a levered posn in a black swan event which occurs much more frequently than most people realize
(2) arrogance and hubris and thinking you are infallible
(3) having huge exposure to highly illiquid positions with wide bid ask spreads so in a crisis when one of these positions actually trades due to a liquidation elsewhere at a low price this causes the PM to have to remark his/her book with huge paper losses causing a forced liquidation
(4) accounting fraud/insider trading
These are foundation building blocks. Adding the oversights in Paulson’s recent due diligence of Chinese timber would also provide very useful information. There is an important twist to this 540M loss, the complicit role of Governments in not auditing company information. As Fellows Co., Paulson and others have learned dealing in China without Hong Kong coverage requires moving the risk bar much higher.
I will try to help. Meanwhile, I have been invited to serve as Session Chairman for
Private Equity and Venture Capital International Business Summit in Asia 2011 in India
and I have served as Co-Chairman for Corporate Governance Summit in Asia 2010 in
Hong Kong where I was born in 1958 and is a Senior Fellow for Hong Kong Institute
of Directors (Corporate Governance Foundation Ambassador) and have just been
invited Guest, along with my daughter, Cassandra, for Asian Financial Forum 2011 in

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