Will Expectancy and Prospect Theory help in backtest failure
This is from my virtual Meetup below but this was suggested to improve this back testing process:
http://www.vantharp.com/tharp-concepts/expectancy.asp
This all comes from this posting
Does this make sense? Or what would you suggest ? Comment in the Youtube video section.
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Another massive failure with Quantopian Pyfolio and Jupytr Notebooks
We tried another one but why do these keep failing when trying to implement
https://github.com/quantopian/pyfolio/tree/master/pyfolio
NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!
More long term trading success vs failure?
So I sent this out yesterday:
https://quantlabs.net/blog/2015/05/hedge-fund-is-your-1-path-to-a-billion/
I got a response via someone in my newsletter:
Bryan, this is very moving statement. I’m confident that the community you created will support you in many future successes and few failures.
I think we will have more failures at the beginning which hopeful long term success after our initial testing. This is usual but this is the real reason why i will start betting instead of trading. We call it baby steps instead of going big in the outset to potentially blow out your account early. Let’s hope I am right for the long term successes.
Join my FREE newsletter to learn more about these long term trading goals
NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!
A Super Committee Failure: Does it Matter?
Many have argued that the failure of the congressional Super Committee to produce $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction over a ten year period could lead to major turmoil in financial markets. According to this view, in the face…
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The “Super Committee” was nothing but political theater from the beginning. No one that I have spoke with ever expected it to come up with anything meaningful and the reaction from both sides the minute the failure was announced pretty much confirms that premise.
Had they succeeded in finding $1.2 Trillion in “cuts” over 10 years you are really only talking about $120 Billion out of $3.6 Trillion currently being spent with projected increases of 5-8% annually because of the way congress establishes it’s budget. That would be the equivalent of Danica Patrick trying to brake her race car using stiletto heels (yes I could have used a different analogy but come on…Danica Patrick driving a stock car in stiletto heels…!).
The biggest issue concerning the debt is the speed of growth over the last 10 years and the lack of desire by the political establishment to take any serious action about it while we can still borrow at historically low interest rates. Instead we have seen a government that is hell bent on growing itself under any circumstance at the expense of private sector investment. Private sector GDP (GDP less government spending) has been flat for the last decade making it more difficult to pay for current spending demands let alone long term debt.
Once we reach the tipping point where we cannot pay our way out through the private sector (remember, government employees pay no taxes), the Fed will have no choice but to inflate it’s way out of debt and THAT is the real risk to the equity markets.
When that point is reached is anyone’s guess, but I’d rather see something done now instead of waiting for it to get worse.
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Let’s be honest and admit the super committee was set up as a strategic political ploy to blame republicans as the do nothing party for the reelection campaign. It was never meant to scale back the baseline spending that the American public wants. What it does show is that America needs to start really getting serious about implementing term limits on elected officials and only then can we start getting fiscal discipline, when elected officials are not a permanent fixture in the government. Markets would respond best to better government management and efficiency. Not bureaucracy and inefficiency
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Prediction: Major bank failure in Southern Europe will lead to run on banks. Same as 1931 in Great Depression
it has been predicted this could happen if a Spanish or Italian fails. It will cause a run on the local banks which will lead to a cascade of global contagion including USA and Europe. The world will follow. This is what happened in 1931 when a bunch of German banks failed. This is apparently what lead to the Great Depress ion to be ‘great’. Europe may not be saved due to the pathetic leadership of 27 European Untion nations who cannot agree on anything. Why should the German tax payer pay for Greeks who like to drink Ouzo on the beach?
NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!Thesis on “the factors of success and failure of hedge funds”
hello all, currently I am doing my thesis on “the factors of success and failure of hedge funds” and I wanted to know if any of you has an answer or an opinion on this subject. For those who are willing to take 15 minutes of their time I have a questionnaire to submit. In return I will send the results of my study.
(1) too much leverage and not understanding what happens to a levered posn in a black swan event which occurs much more frequently than most people realize
(2) arrogance and hubris and thinking you are infallible
(3) having huge exposure to highly illiquid positions with wide bid ask spreads so in a crisis when one of these positions actually trades due to a liquidation elsewhere at a low price this causes the PM to have to remark his/her book with huge paper losses causing a forced liquidation
(4) accounting fraud/insider trading
These are foundation building blocks. Adding the oversights in Paulson’s recent due diligence of Chinese timber would also provide very useful information. There is an important twist to this 540M loss, the complicit role of Governments in not auditing company information. As Fellows Co., Paulson and others have learned dealing in China without Hong Kong coverage requires moving the risk bar much higher.
I will try to help. Meanwhile, I have been invited to serve as Session Chairman for
Private Equity and Venture Capital International Business Summit in Asia 2011 in India
and I have served as Co-Chairman for Corporate Governance Summit in Asia 2010 in
Hong Kong where I was born in 1958 and is a Senior Fellow for Hong Kong Institute
of Directors (Corporate Governance Foundation Ambassador) and have just been
invited Guest, along with my daughter, Cassandra, for Asian Financial Forum 2011 in
