Quant analytics: continuous time markov chains as applied to asset pricing (order book). Any knowledge/experience?

(Last Updated On: March 19, 2012)

Quant analytics: continuous time markov chains as applied to asset pricing (order book). Any knowledge/experience?

Starting to look at continuous time markov chains as applied to asset pricing (order book). Does anyone have any knowledge/experience in this area?

I was recently exploring this:
This paper merges the literature on technical trading rules with the literature on Markovswitching to develop economically useful trading rules. The Markovmodels’ out-of-sample, excess returns modestly exceed those of standard technical rules and are profitable over the most recent subsample. A portfolio of Markov and standard technical rules outperforms either set individually, on a risk-adjusted basis. The Markov rules’ high excess returns contrast with mixed performance on statistical tests of forecast accuracy. There is no clear source for the trends, but permitting the mean to depend on higher moments of the exchange rate distribution modestly increases returns.
Don’t buy the article. Google the title.
On a side note, aren’t candlestick patterns Markov chains as their current state influences the probability of the next state?
If you consider, for example a 3 bar moving-window as a single state, then there are known 3 bar patterns with fixed probabilities for predicting the next state.



NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!
This entry was posted in Quant Analytics and tagged , , , , , , , on by .

About caustic

Hi i there My name is Bryan Downing. I am part of a company called QuantLabs.Net This is specifically a company with a high profile blog about technology, trading, financial, investment, quant, etc. It posts things on how to do job interviews with large companies like Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, Citibank, and IBM. It also posts different unique tips and tricks on Java, C++, or C programming. It posts about different techniques in learning about Matlab and building models or strategies. There is a lot here if you are into venturing into the financial world like quant or technical analysis. It also discusses the future generation of trading and programming Specialties: C++, Java, C#, Matlab, quant, models, strategies, technical analysis, linux, windows P.S. I have been known to be the worst typist. Do not be offended by it as I like to bang stuff out and put priorty of what I do over typing. Maybe one day I can get a full time copy editor to help out. Do note I prefer videos as they are much easier to produce so check out my many video at youtube.com/quantlabs