Synergy Fx – The Week Ahead in the Forex Market has been posted, read it here – http://ow.ly/8Ch4m #forex #fx $$
UK markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s ONS’s first estimate of fourth quarter GDP where economists and analysts are split as to what this number will show. However this may all be sidelined as markets continue to concentrate on the Eurozone’s debt problems commencing with tomorrow’s EU Finance Ministers session in Brussels. EU Ministers this morning have already agreed to a gradual sanctions embargo on oil imports from Iran starting in 6 months time on July 1st. It will be interesting to see how Iran reacts to this decision in particular its threat to close the Straits of Hormuz which would have some serious military implications within the region.
The annual World economic forum starts in Davos this week with the usual collection of economists, leading business leaders and political leaders in attendance. It doesn’t need a rocket science degree to work out what the “top of the agenda” will be in their discussions as the Greek debt talks again break down, this time on a failure to agree on what level of interest Greece should, and can afford to pay, on their debts. Two speeches to be watched will be German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s opening address on Wednesday and ECB President Mario Draghi’s delivery on Friday. Markets will be keen to see if there is any follow up rhetoric from Draghi in response to the ECB’s actions of pumping €489bn into the European Financial system for three years which gave some minimal amounts of encouragement during the course of last week for the future in the Eurozone markets.
Big set-back for the EU this morning with fourth quarter Spanish GDP numbers just released showing the economy contracting at 0.3% and putting considerable pressure on their attempts to cut the Budget deficit. The official number is published at the end of the month. A depressing number also from the Bank of Spain suggesting that Spanish unemployment levels will continue to rise to 23.4%.
What else to watch during the next week? Bank of Japan interest rate decision tonight (no change) Australian CPI, President Obama’s 2012 State of the Union Address, the Bank of England’s MPC minutes and the US FOMC minutes all on Wednesday, US durable goods on Thursday and US GDP 4TH quarter numbers on Friday along with the University of Michigan confidence report. Bond sales for Germany, Spain and Italy also to continue to keep their usual high levels of attention.
Davos, oil prices, Greece and the Euro likely to be the main points of interest for global markets this week ahead of next week’s Eurozone summit meeting next week. Volatility to remain the name of the game with a lot resting in the hands and the decisions of the politicians.
Enough to stimulate the markets interest this week with the pressure still on the single currency.Good week.
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