Ray Dalio Predicts The Next Big Market Crash

A little while ago, Ray Dalio said the world was mad. He also goes into further detail in this video

About: Raymond Dalio is an American billionaire investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. Dalio is the founder, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. Bloomberg ranked him as the world’s 58th wealthiest person in June 2019.

 Click here for the Ray Dalio interview video

See below for the latest analysis in my cryptocurrency trading bot.

Question: Are you willing to pay for discounted long term Analytic subscription terms? Let me know.

If you have not been reading these emails, I have done revamped the store to my old reactivated Shopify store. I am sure you are not interested in the benefits, so I will just post the the highlighted links:

Interative Brokers 4.5 hour Workshop Bootcamp

$37.00

Python Algo Trading Infrastructure with Crypto Currency

$297.00

Quant Analytics 3 months

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Interactive Brokers and DJ Russell Micro market data trading

Here is a decent chat with an Interactive Brokers sales rep about simple queries. I am still waiting for anwers with other brokers. IB make these others look really Mickey Mouse so I am pretty happy with the pro responses of IB. I see no reason to use any one else as a future/options broker. I just wish the other brokers were better than IB. It seems it might be wise to try out the Dow Jones Russell 2000 to start with. You would only need $300 USD to meet minimum margin requirements plus monthly subscription fee. As suggest by the rep said, you should try to aim to start with 2000 USD to do everything comfortably.

Status: Connected | ELAPSED TIME: 00:14:53

ChatSys: This chat is associated with ticket #695509. Please record this number for use in future inquiries. You are currently in room ‘General Assistance’.

Me: What is the minimum deposit required to open a futures account?

Rohit D: Hello, this is ‘Rohit D’. Please allow me a moment to read the question you submitted to iBot and I’ll respond to you shortly.

Me: hi rohit

Rohit D: Hi

Me: i have seen the min amount for emini micros

i am trying to understand it. i am wanting to know more about emini micro for gold

Rohit D: There is no minimum deposit required as such. However to obtain Margin capabilities the account value (Cash + Securities) should be greater than USD 2,000 or equivalent in other currencies.

Me: what is the min amount needed in a new account to trade just emini micro gold?

i saw it was around 450 usd, is this correct?

Rohit D: Let me check.

Me: ok thanks

Rohit D: Can you provide me the ticker please.

Me: MGC

Rohit D: I’m still working on this

Me: ok

Rohit D: Thank you for waiting.

Below are the requirements to trade in MGC

Intraday Initial – USD 401.625
Intraday Maintenance – USD 321.30
Overnight Initial – USD 573.75
Overnight Maintenance – USD 459

You can get more details here: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=26662&hm=us&ex=us&rgt=0&rsk=1&pm=0&rst=101004100808

Me: M2K i just see 225.317 for minimum margin requirement. is this correct ?

Rohit D: Yes that is correct

It keep changing daily and hence it is important that you keep a track on this website.

Me: ok. if that is the case, can i not just open account with let’s say 300 USD to focus on this symbol, i should be ok to trade in a live account?

Rohit D: Yes you can do that.

Me: but i do not get any historical data right? i only get real time data ?

Rohit D: Yes that is correct

sorry

You would not get live data

You will need to subscribe to it.

Me: what are the fees for that monthly?

i get this here? https://www.interactivebrokers.ca/en/accounts/fees/marketData.php?ib_entity=ca

Rohit D: To subscribe to Market data you will need to have an account value (Cash + Securities) of USD 2,000 or equivalent + the cost of the Market data subscriptions.

You can get the charges here: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=14193#data-selections

Is there anything else I can help you with?

Me: so to confirm, i just need the $300 to trade that Dow Jones, pay the monthly fee for it and i should be ok. is this correct ?

Rohit D: Yes

Me: ok. is there a way to get historical data ?

Rohit D: Let me check

Without market data you will not be able to get historical data

Me: i get that, this is why i am asking for the fees for historical

Rohit D: There is no fees as such. The fees are only for Market data.

Me: never mind i can get it else where. thanks for the really good help

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Portfolio Management course topics from MIT

Topics include MIT 18.S096 Topics in Mathematics with Applications in Finance, Fall 2013

Interested in these topics? Get these books

This seems to get a lot of attention in my Facebook programming group

MIT 18.S096 Topics in Mathematics with Applications in Finance, Fall 2013
View the complete course: http://ocw.mit.edu/18-S096F13

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Python for Everybody – Full Course

If you are looking at for free video set to learn programming with Python from zero knowledge, you may be interested in this 13+ hour video. Crazy I know but it is free Check it out. Here is the description of this video

Like these topics, get some secret screener tech here

This Python 3 tutorial course aims to teach everyone the basics of programming computers using Python. The course has no pre-requisites and avoids all but the simplest mathematics.

This video is from 2014 but I am sure it is still relevant.

If you have not been reading these emails, I have done revamped the store to my old reactivated Shopify store. I am sure you are not interested in the benefits, so I will just post the the highlighted links:

Interative Brokers 4.5 hour Workshop Bootcamp

$37.00

Python Algo Trading Infrastructure with Crypto Currency

$297.00

Quant Analytics 3 months

$297.00

HOW DO YOU START A PROFITABLE TRADING BUSINESS? Read more NOW >>>

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

James H. Simons: Math, Common Sense and Good Luck

Here is another Jim Simons and Renaissance Technology related. Also, you will find the video description here:

Interested in these topics? Check out some free tech screeners here:

The American Mathematical Society and the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute present the 2014 AMS Einstein Public Lecture in Mathematics with James H. Simons, the president of the Simons Foundation. Simons is a philanthropist, mathematician, investor, and financier who supports basic research in the sciences through the foundation he created with his wife, Marilyn.

This video is from 2014 but I am sure it is still relevant.

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Did this research paper kick off Renaissance Technologies?

From the research paper authored by Peter Brown and Robert Mercer while at the IBM Watson Research Center in the early 90s.

http://www.naxa.com/downloads/J93-2003.pdf

Interested in this type of topic? Check this out

Screen software topics
Learn how to build custom trading bots here

It seems the initial 5 models are based on Bayes Theorem for probability analysis.  They use a series of analysis to compare one against another (.e.g French vs English) to find patterns to see how connection relate with each other. This is for translation purposes.

P

Pg 7: We generally follow the common convention of using uppercase letters to denote random variables and the corresponding lowercase letters to denote specific values that the random variables may take. We have already used I and m to represent the lengths of the strings e and L and so we use L and M to denote the corresponding random variables.

As stated here by James Baker, https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-investment-strategies-of-James-Simons-Renaissance-Technologies-I-understand-he-employs-complex-mathematical-models-along-with-statistical-analyses-to-predict-non-equilibrium-changes

We need to understand the corresponding random variables. There is mention of Lagrange multipliers and normalizing predictive data.

Auxiliary functions are used as well to generate desirable parameters using extrema/maxima analysis. Conditional probabilities are used as well. On pg 276 there are translation, distortion and fertility probabilities.


Page 282: Model 5 is a powerful but unwieldy ally in the battle to align translations. It must be led to the battlefield by its weaker but more agile brethren Models 2, 3, and 4. In fact, this is the raison d’etre of these models. To keep them aware of the lay of the land, we adjust their parameters as we carry out iterations of the EM algorithm for Model 5. That is, we collect counts for Models 2, 3, and 4 by summing over alignments as determined by the abbreviated S described above, using Model 5 to compute Pr(ale, f). Although this appears to increase the storage necessary for maintaining counts as we proceed through the training data, the extra burden is small because the overwhelming majority of the storage is devoted to counts for t(fle ), and these are the same for Models 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Page 283 shows the number of translations done which goes into the millions to determine a small subset of useful words. EM algo used with maximum likelihood.

Pg 283 Although the entire t array has 2,437, 020,096 entries, and we need to store it twice, once as probabilities and once as counts, it is clear from the preceeding remarks that we need never deal with more than about 25 million counts or about 12 million probabilities. We store these two arrays using standard sparse matrix techniques. We 283 Computational Linguistics Volume 19, Number 2 keep counts as pairs of bytes, but allow for overflow into 4 bytes if necessary. In this way, it is possible to run the training program in less than 100 megabytes of memory. While this number would have seemed extravag…

Page 293 speaks of Viterbi algo training:

We have already used this algorithm successfully as a part of a system to assign senses to English and French words on the basis of the context in which they appear (…

Page 297 table of notation

Appendix B has summary of models. Note especially Log-Likelihood Objective Function.

Note page 300 iterative improvement.

In order to apply these algorithms, we need to solve the maximization problems of Steps 2 and 4. For the models that we consider, we can do this explicitly. T

Page 301: Parameter Reestimation Formulae: In order to apply these algorithms, we need to solve the maximization problems of Steps 2 and 4. For the models that we consider, we can do this explicitly.

Equation (73) is useful in computations since it involves only O(lm) arithmetic operations, whereas the original sum over alignments (72) involves 0(I m) operations.

Download entire collection including some old interview with Jim Simons and rare audio speech of Peter Brown and Bob Mercer

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NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

5 Lessons From the Greatest Traders Jim Simons book

Since the announcement of a book about the Renaissance Technology founder, It is a week about Jim Simons. The thing is that he is easily the most successful trader or investor of our time. Someone went out and wrote about some of the lessons learned  from this book.

Out of all the articles I have seen over the last few weeks, this is easily the most useful.

If you have not been reading these emails, I have done revamped the store to my old reactivated Shopify store. I am sure you are not interested in the benefits, so I will just post the the highlighted links:





Interative Brokers 4.5 hour Workshop Bootcamp

$37.00

https://quantlabs.net/interactivebrokers/

Python Algo Trading Infrastructure with Crypto Currency

$297.00

Quant Analytics 3 months

$297.00

Thanks Bryan

HOW DO YOU START A PROFITABLE TRADING BUSINESS? Read more NOW >>>

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Goldman Sachs lose top traders to hedge funds

I have put together some articles on what is happening with Goldman Sachs as more people are leaving. Here are some reasons from the first article:

Junior traders have been complaining of a new approach at Goldman Sachs. As the firm focuses on developing stable streams of income from ‘platform’ businesses, volatile trading revenues have gone out of fashion. Insiders complain there’s less interest in generating alpha and more of a focus on pure market making, meaning alpha-generating traders feel they’re better off on the buy-side.

https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/3002624/goldman-top-traders-leaving-for-hedge-funds

Many seem to be going to Bluecrest but never ask me why. Here are the other articles leading into Goldman is moving into platform based businesses which make sense:

https://news.efinancialcareers.com/us-en/311902/real-reasons-junior-traders-leaving-goldman-sachs

https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/3002409/goldman-sachs-technology-jobs

I am still looking for feedback from people on this new physical book I am thinking of self publishing. As said, a darft is in place but I am not willing to move forward unless people comment on what more they would like to see in it. This book proposes to speak about 4 main topics:

  1. Your retirement and future taxes
  2. How to hire a coder
  3. Rise of Bitcoin and crypto currency

It generally will speak of why the benefits of algo trading can help secure your unclear future.

As said, let me know by commenting or responding about this. I will simply quash the idea if I just see clicks and social media likes.

Thanks Bryan

HOW DO YOU START A PROFITABLE TRADING BUSINESS? Read more NOW >>>

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Book of the benefit algo trading for your financial security

How many of you would be interested in a book about how algo trading can help secure your financial future? As we move into a recession, I am polling to see if there would be a market demand for a book on such a topic. Please let me know as I already got a full draft written up.

HOW DO YOU START A PROFITABLE TRADING BUSINESS? Read more NOW >>>

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!

Learn how to use Interactive Brokers or Dukascopy brokers

I am planning to replace the current online store. I am sending you this email to see if you are interested in some cheap video product. Here are some sample product. These are listed below and are active if interested. 

The new Shopify shopping page will be at https://quantlabsnet.myshopify.com/

Thanks Bryan

P.S. I will replace all product and services to this shopping account later today. 

HOW DO YOU START A PROFITABLE TRADING BUSINESS? Read more NOW >>>

NOTE I now post my TRADING ALERTS into my personal FACEBOOK ACCOUNT and TWITTER. Don't worry as I don't post stupid cat videos or what I eat!